According to the China Securities Journal, since the second quarter, domestic spot prices of electrolytic aluminum have all increased. An executive of a listed electrolytic aluminum company in Northwest China said that due to some international events and rising demand, the price of electrolytic aluminum in the second quarter would be “on the optimistic side”.

According to the person's analysis, from the demand side, compared with the first quarter, the demand was strong in the second quarter. On the one hand, the United States is China's main exporter of electrolytic aluminum, and the Rusal event will squeeze out a certain amount of US market demand (without considering the Sino-US trade friction factors). More importantly, as the temperature rises, domestic construction projects and factories are being started one after another. Profiles, buildings, vehicles and transportation facilities, electricity and industrial aluminum materials downstream of electrolytic aluminum have all entered the peak demand season. The traditional peak season for electrolytic aluminum is coming. Demand is improving.

From the perspective of the supply side, the operating capacity is low, and the supply increase is less than expected. At present, the price of domestic electrolytic aluminum is not high, about 14,000 yuan / ton, which is at the relatively bottom. The electrolytic aluminum factory, which has stopped production due to winter production restrictions, is not as high as expected.

In terms of futures, the main contract of electrolytic aluminum has fallen all the way since the third quarter of 2017. After hitting a stage low of 13,715 yuan / ton on March 30 this year, it began to rebound, and the transaction volume was significantly enlarged. It is expected that an upward trend will occur.

Looking at the upstream of electrolytic aluminum, a large electrolytic aluminum plant in Xinjiang said that about 80% of the cost of electrolytic aluminum is ample supply of electricity and alumina, and the price is stable.

The executives of the above companies believe that at present, the United States has announced that it intends to impose tariffs on electrolytic aluminum exported from China to the United States. If implemented, objectively, China's electrolytic aluminum export volume will decrease, the domestic electrolytic aluminum supply will increase, and the price will fall. However, after communicating with many people in the electrolytic aluminum industry, most people think that the impact of the Sino-US trade friction on the electrolytic aluminum market will not last long.